Leaving Afghanistan
Aug. 16th, 2021 11:25 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
libertarianhawkA twitter friend asked:
I attribute the Elphinstone reenactment to the establishment's intense desire to pretend that this isn't a failure.
To justify it as a success, they claimed the Afghan army and gov't were able to stand on their own. To prop that up, lots of equipment was handed over.
(No need to look at ancient history for how it would go--just look at how ISIS smashed Iraqi Army formations after the US pulled combat troops out under Obama.)
The translators, informants, and other people the US endangered weren't evacuated because that would show lack of faith in the Afghan army & gov't. Same for all the random American journalists, tourists, and NGO workers.
President made a speech about how the Afghans would fight off the Taliban by themselves. Probably believed it, since no one who pointed out how factions there regularly switch from weak to strong sides would be allowed to contribute to the inter-agency consensus documents.
Everybody in DC was happy with the plan. US troops brought home, Afghans carried the load. Embassy would function with ceremonial guards and the vulnerable would be safe where they were.
Oh, noes! Reality isn't matching the plan!
Well, not their fault, they have paperwork to cover their asses. $OTHERAGENCY said the Afghans would succeed / the Taliban would be slower / there was plenty of time.
So now there's the last minute scramble to save people and keep gear away from the Taliban.
Could the evacuation have been done better? Sure. It just would've required DC politicians (including generals) to admit this would be a collapse and plan for it.
But the politicians and generals won't pay a price for their pretending.
The price is being paid by brave Afghans who put their lives on the line to help the US, bystanders who trusted assurances of safety, and the future victims of all those fancy toys falling into Taliban hands.
***
For a reasonable withdrawal, the steps would be:
1. Take back all the fancy gear given to the Afghan Army, ship it out of the country.
2. Move all of the translators and other Afghans in danger from their work for us to US or friendly soil.
3. Warn all the expatriates to get the hell out, with at least a month's notice.
4. Evacuate the embassy, agricultural help teams, schoolteachers, etc.
5. Remove the combat troops.
Instead the actual plan was doing step 5 . . . and then sending troops back in to try to do 1-4 before the Taliban broke down the door. Impossible, but it allows the blame to be evaded, so a success in DC.
As a silver lining, while nation-building in Afghanistan was not successful, I think the next Afghan who gets an idea for killing thousands on US soil is going to get slapped. "Shut up! You want the Americans running around blowing shit up for 20 years again?"
For the poor sorry sons of bitches brought in to help facilitate the rout under fire, I offer a bit of Kipling:
When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier of the Queen!
so, given that 1. leaving Afghanistan was inevitable but 2. our operational incompetence in the execution led to it being way more of a shitshow than it needed to be, I'm curious
what's the source of the incompetence? the administration? the brass?
I attribute the Elphinstone reenactment to the establishment's intense desire to pretend that this isn't a failure.
To justify it as a success, they claimed the Afghan army and gov't were able to stand on their own. To prop that up, lots of equipment was handed over.
(No need to look at ancient history for how it would go--just look at how ISIS smashed Iraqi Army formations after the US pulled combat troops out under Obama.)
The translators, informants, and other people the US endangered weren't evacuated because that would show lack of faith in the Afghan army & gov't. Same for all the random American journalists, tourists, and NGO workers.
President made a speech about how the Afghans would fight off the Taliban by themselves. Probably believed it, since no one who pointed out how factions there regularly switch from weak to strong sides would be allowed to contribute to the inter-agency consensus documents.
Everybody in DC was happy with the plan. US troops brought home, Afghans carried the load. Embassy would function with ceremonial guards and the vulnerable would be safe where they were.
Oh, noes! Reality isn't matching the plan!
Well, not their fault, they have paperwork to cover their asses. $OTHERAGENCY said the Afghans would succeed / the Taliban would be slower / there was plenty of time.
So now there's the last minute scramble to save people and keep gear away from the Taliban.
Could the evacuation have been done better? Sure. It just would've required DC politicians (including generals) to admit this would be a collapse and plan for it.
But the politicians and generals won't pay a price for their pretending.
The price is being paid by brave Afghans who put their lives on the line to help the US, bystanders who trusted assurances of safety, and the future victims of all those fancy toys falling into Taliban hands.
For a reasonable withdrawal, the steps would be:
1. Take back all the fancy gear given to the Afghan Army, ship it out of the country.
2. Move all of the translators and other Afghans in danger from their work for us to US or friendly soil.
3. Warn all the expatriates to get the hell out, with at least a month's notice.
4. Evacuate the embassy, agricultural help teams, schoolteachers, etc.
5. Remove the combat troops.
Instead the actual plan was doing step 5 . . . and then sending troops back in to try to do 1-4 before the Taliban broke down the door. Impossible, but it allows the blame to be evaded, so a success in DC.
As a silver lining, while nation-building in Afghanistan was not successful, I think the next Afghan who gets an idea for killing thousands on US soil is going to get slapped. "Shut up! You want the Americans running around blowing shit up for 20 years again?"
For the poor sorry sons of bitches brought in to help facilitate the rout under fire, I offer a bit of Kipling:
When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier of the Queen!
no subject
Date: 2021-08-17 06:40 am (UTC)